Mesterházy, Ildikó and Mészáros, Róbert and Pongrácz, Rita and Bodor, Péter and Ladányi, Márta (2018) The analysis of climatic indicators using different growing season calculation methods – an application to grapevine grown in Hungary. IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 122 (3). pp. 217-235. ISSN 0324-6329
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Abstract
The precise knowledge of the beginning and the end of the growing season is necessary for the calculation of climatic indicators with evident effect on grapevine production. The aim of this study is to develop suitable methods on the basis of thermal conditions that can be used for calculation of the beginning, the end, and the length of the growing season for every single year. The two most accurate methods (5mid' and 'int') are selected using the root-mean-square error compared to the reference growing season values based on averaging the daily mean temperature for several decades. In case of the `5mid' method, the beginning (or the end) is the middle day of the first (or last) 5-day period with temperature not less than 10 degrees C. In case of the 'int' method, the beginning (or the end) of the growing season is the day after March 15 (or September 15), when the smoothed series of daily temperature using the monthly average temperatures of March and April (or September and October) exceeds 10 degrees C (or falls below 10 degrees C). As a next step, several climatic indicators (e.g., Huglin index and hydrothermal coefficient) are calculated for Hungary for three time periods (1961-1990, 2021-2050, and 2071-2100*) using the '5mid' and 'int' methods. For this purpose, the bias-corrected daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature and daily precipitation outputs of three different regional climate models (RegCM, ALADIN, and PRECIS) are used. Extreme temperature and precipitation indices are also evaluated as they determine the risk of grapevine production. The spatial distributions of the indicators are presented on maps. We compare the indicators for the past and for the future using one-way completely randomized robust ANOVA (analysis of variance). Results suggest that changes of temperature conditions in the 21st century will favor the production of red grapevine and late-ripening cultivars. Furthermore, drought seasons will be longer and extreme high summer temperatures will become more frequent, which are clearly considered as high risk factors in grapevine production. Besides the negative effects, the risk of winter frost damage is expected to decrease, which is evidently a favorable change in terms of grapevine production.
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| Additional Information: | Funding Agency and Grant Number: OTKA [K109109, K109361]; EU FP6 integrated program [505539]; Agrarklima2 project [VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034]; European Union; European Social Fund [TAMOP-4.2.1/B-09/1/KMR-2010-0003, TAMOP-4.2.2.C-11/1/KONV-2012-0013]; Szechenyi 2020 programme; European Regional Development Fund; Hungarian Government [GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00028]; [OTKA K-78125]\n Funding text: Simulation of the PRECIS regional climate model was supported by grant OTKA K-78125. The authors are grateful for Ildiko Pieczka (Eotvos Lorand University, Dpt. of Meteorology) for providing bias-corrected model outputs. The RegCM and ALADIN simulations were developed within the ENSEMBLES project (505539) which was funded by the EU FP6 integrated program. The E-OBS database was provided by the ENSEMBLES and ECA&D projects. This work has been supported by OTKA grants K109109 and K109361, and also by the Agrarklima2 project (VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034). The research was supported by the European Union and the European Social Fund (TAMOP-4.2.1/B-09/1/KMR-2010-0003, FuturICT.hu grant no.: TAMOP-4.2.2.C-11/1/KONV-2012-0013), and by the Szechenyi 2020 programme, the European Regional Development Fund and the Hungarian Government (GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00028). We would also like to thank Peter Raffai for his valuable help with the English revision.\n Department of Biometrics and Agricultural Informatics, Szent István University, Villányi út 29-43, Budapest, H-1118, Hungary Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány P. sétány 1/A, Budapest, H-1117, Hungary Excellence Center, Faculty of Science, Eötvös Loránd University, Brunszvik u. 2, Martonvásár, H-2462, Hungary Department of Viticulture, Szent István University, Villányi út 29-43, Budapest, H-1118, Hungary Export Date: 3 December 2018 Correspondence Address: Mesterházy, I.; Department of Biometrics and Agricultural Informatics, Szent István University, Villányi út 29-43, Hungary; email: Mesterhazy.Ildiko@kertk.szie.hu |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Europe; REGIONS; TRENDS; Vitis vinifera; ANOVA; ALADIN; growing season calculation method; climatic indicator; Bonferroni's correction; RegCM; |
| Subjects: | Q Science / természettudomány > QE Geology / földtudományok > QE04 Meteorology / meteorológia |
| SWORD Depositor: | MTMT SWORD |
| Depositing User: | MTMT SWORD |
| Date Deposited: | 08 Jan 2020 07:05 |
| Last Modified: | 08 Jan 2020 07:05 |
| URI: | http://real.mtak.hu/id/eprint/105255 |
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