REAL

Predicting temperature mortality and selection in natural Drosophila populations

Rezende, Enrico L and Bozinovic, Franciso and Szilágyi, András and Santos, Mauro (2020) Predicting temperature mortality and selection in natural Drosophila populations. Science, 369. pp. 1242-1245. ISSN 0036-8075 (print) 1095-9203 (online)

[img] Text
rezende_et_al_science_2020.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only

Download (476kB) | Request a copy

Abstract

Average and extreme temperatures will increase in the near future, but how such shifts will affect mortality in natural populations is still unclear. We used a dynamic model to predict mortality under variable temperatures on the basis of heat tolerance laboratory measurements. Theoretical lethal temperatures for 11 Drosophila species under different warming conditions were virtually indistinguishable from empirical results. For Drosophila in the field, daily mortality predicted from ambient temperature records accumulate over weeks or months, consistent with observed seasonal fluctuations and population collapse in nature. Our model quantifies temperature-induced mortality in nature, which is crucial to study the effects of global warming on natural populations, and analyses highlight that critical temperatures are unreliable predictors of mortality.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: Q Science / természettudomány > Q1 Science (General) / természettudomány általában
Depositing User: András Szilágyi
Date Deposited: 19 Sep 2020 10:41
Last Modified: 19 Sep 2020 10:41
URI: http://real.mtak.hu/id/eprint/113743

Actions (login required)

Edit Item Edit Item