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Nonlinear model predictive control with logic constraints for COVID-19 management

Péni, Tamás and Csutak, Balázs and Szederkényi, Gábor and Röst, Gergely (2020) Nonlinear model predictive control with logic constraints for COVID-19 management. NONLINEAR DYNAMICS. pp. 1-30. ISSN 0924-090X (In Press)

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Abstract

The management of COVID-19 appears to be a long term chal- lenge, even in countries that have managed to suppress the epidemic after their initial outbreak. In this paper, we propose a model predictive approach for the constrained control of a nonlinear compartmental model that cap- tures the key dynamical properties of COVID-19. The control design uses the discrete-time version of the epidemic model, and it is able to handle complex, possibly time-dependent constraints, logical relations between model variables, and multiple predefined discrete levels of interventions. A state observer is also constructed for the computation of non-measured variables from the number of hospitalized patients. Five control scenarios with different cost functions and constraints are studied through numerical simulations, including an out- put feedback configuration with uncertain parameters. It is visible from the results that, depending on the cost function associated to different policy aims, the obtained controls correspond to mitigation and suppression strategies, and the constructed control inputs are similar to real life government responses. The results also clearly show the key importance of early intervention, the continuous tracking of the susceptible population and that of future work in determining the true costs of restrictive control measures and their quantitative effects.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: Q Science / természettudomány > Q1 Science (General) / természettudomány általában
T Technology / alkalmazott, műszaki tudományok > T2 Technology (General) / műszaki tudományok általában
Depositing User: Péni Tamás
Date Deposited: 24 Sep 2020 10:37
Last Modified: 24 Sep 2020 10:37
URI: http://real.mtak.hu/id/eprint/113924

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