Return values of 60-minute extreme rainfall for Hungary

Lakatos, Mónika and Kovácsné Izsák, Beatrix Cecília and Szentes, Olivér and Hoffmann, Lilla and Bíróné Kircsi, Andrea and Konkolyné Bihari, Zita (2020) Return values of 60-minute extreme rainfall for Hungary. IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 124 (2). pp. 143-156. ISSN 0324-6329

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Abstract

The rainfall intensity for various return periods are commonly used for hydrological design. In this study, we focus on rare, short-term, 60-minute precipitation extremes and related return values which are one of the relevant durations in the planning and operating demands of drainage and sewerage systems in Hungary. Time series of 60-minute yearly maxima were analyzed at 96 meteorological stations. To estimate the return values for a given return period, the General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was fit to the yearly maxima. The GEV fit and also the Gumbel fit (GEV Type I.) were tested. According to the goodness of fit test results, both GEV and Gumbel distributions, are adequate choices. The return values for 2, 4, 5, 10, 20, and 50 year return periods are illustrated on maps, and together with their 95% confidence intervals, are listed in tables for selected stations. The maps of return values demonstrate that the spatial patterns of the return values are similar, although the enhancing effect of orography can be explored in the Transdanubia region and in the North Hungarian Range. As the return period is increasing, so the range of the confidence are widening as it is expected.

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