How to head count ethnic minorities: validity of census surveys versus other identification strategies

Csata, Zsombor and Hlatky, Roman and Liu, Amy H. (2020) How to head count ethnic minorities: validity of census surveys versus other identification strategies. EAST EUROPEAN POLITICS, 37 (3). pp. 572-592. ISSN 2159-9165

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Abstract

Censuses ask individuals to identify their own ethnicity. Minorities, however, may be reluctant to self-identify; and thus, censuses may underreport minority populations, raising concerns about measurement validity. We identify and measure the extent of this concern by matching census data on Romas in Romania against a nationwide survey of 2800 municipality experts (SocioRoMap). While not perfect, we find considerable overlap between the two strategies. In the cases where the two measures do not match, the density of community networks is the driver for likelihood of non-congruence – but demographics factors and socioeconomic conditions account for the level, i.e. the magnitude of difference between the two estimation strategies. Given the systemic discrimination of Romas, these results are cautiously reassuring. As most countries head into a census-collecting year, this paper offers an empirical strategy for assessing the validity of self-identified numbers. If governments are concerned about measurement, random samples of expert assessments can help validate. Alternatively, policymakers can focus where miscounts are most likely: urban, ethnically diverse, and poor localities.

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