Projected temperature changes in Kolašin (Montenegro) up to 2100 according to EBU-POM and ALADIN regional climate models

Burić, Dragan and Doderović, Miroslav (2020) Projected temperature changes in Kolašin (Montenegro) up to 2100 according to EBU-POM and ALADIN regional climate models. IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 124 (4). pp. 427-445. ISSN 0324-6329

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Abstract

This paper deals with the temperature projections of two regonal climate models, actually three scenarios by 2100: the A2 scenario of the EBU-POM model and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the latest projections of the ALADIN model. Kolašin was chosen, because the altitude of the place is the average height of the northern region of Montenegro (about 1000 m). A total of 22 temperature parameters for the period 2011–2100 were analyzed. The upward trend of projected seasonal and annual (TY, TYx, and TYn) mean, mean maximum, and mean minimum temperatures by 2100 is very significant. According to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, in 2011-2100, the trend of projected mean winter (TW) temperatures will be from 0.2 to 0.37 °C per decade, and the trend of projected mean summer (TSu) temperatures will be from 0.24 to 0.54 °C per decade. Compared to the base period (1981–2010), the average annual temperature in 2071–2100 is expected to be higher than 2.2 (RCP4.5) to 3.6 °C (A2 and RCP8.5). Also, by the end of the 21st century, a significant increase in the number of summer and tropical days (SD and TD) together with a decrease in the number of frost and ice days (FD and ID) are expected. During the instrumental period, a temperature higher than 37 °C was not recorded. According to projections, in the late 21st century, in summer, maximum temperatures of 40 °C are possible, even in the milder variant (RCP4.5) scenario. According to projections of the used models, Kolašin and the northern region of Montenegro expect a warmer future with more frequent extreme temperatures in a positive direction.

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