Precursors of an upcoming solar cycle at high latitudes from coronal green line data

Petrovay, Kristóf and Nagy, Melinda and Juhász, Tímea and Murár-Juhász, Lilla (2018) Precursors of an upcoming solar cycle at high latitudes from coronal green line data. JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL PHYSICS, 176. pp. 15-20. ISSN 1364-6826

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Abstract

After reviewing potential early indicators of an upcoming solar cycle at high latitudes, we focus attention on the rush-to-the-poles (RTTP) phenomenon in coronal green line emission. Considering various correlations between properties of the RTTP with the upcoming solar cycle we find a correlation between the rate of the RTTP and the time delay until the maximum of the next solar cycle. On the basis of this correlation and the known internal regularities of the sunspot number series we predict that, following a minimum in 2019, cycle 25 will peak in late 2024 at an amplitude of about 130 (in terms of smoothed monthly revised sunspot numbers). This slightly exceeds the amplitude of cycle 24 but it would still make cycle 25 a fairly weak cycle.

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