Probabilistic cellular automaton: model and application to vegetation dynamics

Lanzer, A.T.S. and Pillar, V.D. (2002) Probabilistic cellular automaton: model and application to vegetation dynamics. Community Ecology, 3 (2). pp. 159-167. ISSN 1585-8553

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Abstract

We offer a new framework for cellular automata modeling to describe and predict vegetation dynamics. The model can simulate community composition and spatial patterns by following a set of probabilistic rules generated from empirical data on plant neighborhood dynamics. Based on published data (Lippe et al. 1985), we apply the model to simulate Atlantic Heathland vegetation dynamics and compare the outcome with previous models described for the same site. Our results indicate reasonable agreement between simulated and real data and with previous models based on Markov chains or on mechanistic spatial simulation, and that spatial models may detect similar species dynamics given by non-spatial models. We found evidence that a directional vegetation dynamics may not correspond to a monotonic increase in community spatial organization. The model framework may as well be applied to other systems.

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