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Sources of uncertainty in ecological modelling: predicting vegetation types from environmental attributes

Dale, M.B. and Dale, P.E.R. (2004) Sources of uncertainty in ecological modelling: predicting vegetation types from environmental attributes. Community Ecology, 5 (2). pp. 203-225. ISSN 1585-8553

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Abstract

In this paper, we use decision trees to construct models for predicting vegetation types from environmental attributes in a salt marsh. We examine a method for evaluating the worth of a decision tree and look at seven sources of uncertainty in the models produced, namely algorithmic, predictive, model, scenario, objective, context and scale. The accuracy of prediction of types was strongly affected by the scenario and scale, with the most dynamically variable attributes associated with poor prediction, while more static attributes performed better. However, examination of the misclassified samples showed that prediction of processes was much better, with local vegetation type-induced patterns nested within a broader environmental framework.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: Q Science / természettudomány > QH Natural history / természetrajz > QH540 Ecology / ökológia
Depositing User: xBarbara xBodnár
Date Deposited: 11 Nov 2017 14:28
Last Modified: 11 Nov 2017 14:28
URI: http://real.mtak.hu/id/eprint/67536

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