Statistical analysis of annual and seasonal temperature regime change in Rasina River basin, Serbia

Stričević, Ljiljana and Pavlović, Mila and Filipović, Ivan and Radivojević, Aleksandar and Gocić, Milena and Martić Bursać, Nataša (2022) Statistical analysis of annual and seasonal temperature regime change in Rasina River basin, Serbia. IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 126 (1). pp. 127-157. ISSN 0324-6329

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Abstract

In this research, changes in annual and seasonal trends of mean temperatures were analyzed on the territory of the Rasina River basin (central Serbia). We used data from four meteorological stations during three periods: 1961–1989, 1990–2018, and 1979–2013. The change detection analysis has been conceded using the Pettitt’s test, von Neumann ratio test, Buishand’s range test, and standard normal homogeneity (SNH) test, while the linear regression, Mann-Kendall, and Sen's slope tests have been applied for trend analysis. The results show that the change in summer temperatures occurred shortly after 1980. The analysis results showed that inhomogeneous structures are generally observed between 1976 and 1984, between 1997 and 1998, and in 2006. The trend of all the data on annual basis showed positive increasing trend. The analysis indicated that the average annual, winter, and summer temperatures show significant increasing trend both in the longer period (1961–2018) and in the second part of the period (1990–2018). In the first part of the period (1961–1989), autumn temperatures in Kruševac, summer and autumn temperatures in Blace, as well as winter and autumn temperatures in Goč showed significant decreasing trend. The significant rising trend in the summer and winter months in the last 30 years may affect water availability and water demands in the region.

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