The Macro-Level Driving Factors of Negative Campaigning in Europe

Papp, Zsófia and Patkós, Veronika (2018) The Macro-Level Driving Factors of Negative Campaigning in Europe. The International Journal of Press/Politics. pp. 1-22. ISSN 1940-1612, ESSN: 1940-1620

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Abstract

Our study examines the effect of country-specific factors on the tone of political campaigns across Europe. Additionally, covering the largest sample of European countries to date it tests the effects of ‘usual suspects’ in the literature. We use an original dataset of statements made by political actors during 18 electoral campaigns in 9 European countries. Using a multilevel logit model we look at the effects of three country-level variables on campaign tone: type of democracy, party system fragmentation and the polarisation of the electorate. The paper concludes that party system fragmentation and polarisation affects negativity, and parties in consensus democracies are more likely to use neutral tone. Additionally, we find that the effect of the ‘usual suspects’ derived from single case studies do not prevail systematically. This implies to be very cautious when building on such results, and especially when generalizing American results to European multi-party contexts.

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