A Tractable Stochastic Model of Correlated Link Failures Caused by Disasters

Tapolcai, János and Vass, Balázs and Heszberger, Zalán and Bíró, József and Hay, David and Kuipers A., Fernando and Rónyai, Lajos (2018) A Tractable Stochastic Model of Correlated Link Failures Caused by Disasters. In: IEEE International Conference on Computer Communications, 15-19 April 2018, Honolulu, HI (USA).

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Abstract

In order to evaluate the expected availability of a service, a network administrator should consider all possible failure scenarios under the specific service availability model stipulated in the corresponding service-level agreement. Given the increase in natural disasters and malicious attacks with geographically extensive impact, considering only independent single link failures is often insufficient. In this paper, we build a stochastic model of geographically correlated link failures caused by disasters, in order to estimate the hazards a network may be prone to, and to understand the complex correlation between possible link failures. With such a model, one can quickly extract information, such as the probability of an arbitrary set of links to fail simultaneously, the probability of two nodes to be disconnected, the probability of a path to survive a failure, etc. Furthermore, we introduce a pre-computation process, which enables us to succinctly represent the joint probability distribution of link failures. In particular, we generate, in polynomial time, a quasilinear-sized data structure, with which the joint failure probability of any set of links can be computed efficiently.

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