Assessment of air temperature trend in South and Southeast Bosnia and Herzegovina from 1961 to 2017

Papić, Dragan and Bačević, Nikola R. and Valjarević, Aleksandar and Milentijević, Nikola and Gavrilov, Milivoj B. and Živković, Milenko and Marković, Slobodan B. (2020) Assessment of air temperature trend in South and Southeast Bosnia and Herzegovina from 1961 to 2017. IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 124 (3). pp. 381-399. ISSN 0324-6329

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Abstract

Recent climate change has been caused by interaction of natural processes and the anthropogenic factor. In turn, it incites the pronounced natural and socio-economic changes. It is the air temperature that plays a pertinent role in understanding the climate change problem. Southeast Europe, including Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H), is highly relevant for the observations of regional differences in changes of air temperature regime. From the regional-geographical point of view, South and Southeast B&H cover 26.5% (13.568 km²) of B&H territory (51.209 km²). It is from south and southeast that the Mediterranean impacts from the Adriatic Sea penetrate into the defined region, which further affects the variability of climate conditions in B&H. The paper presents trends in three parameter categories: mean annual, mean maximum, and mean minimum air temperatures in the territory of South and Southeast B&H. The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the likely climate change based on air temperature trends. Methodologically, temperature trends were processed by using the Mann-Kendall trend test. For the purpose of the analysis, available data from four meteorological stations in South and Southeast B&H for a 56-year period were used. Based on the obtained results, a statistically relevant positive trend was observed in all twelve time series. According to the analyzed trends, the increase of air temperature was dominant in the target area. The application of Geographical Information System (GIS) tools indicated the presence of regional differences in air temperature distribution. An evident phenomenon is the combined impact of the orography of the region and the maritime influence. The occurring climate change affects specific social sectors, so the problem must be addressed properly. Another pertinent fact is that the climate change problem has not been adequately analyzed in the strategic documents in B&H.

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