An assessment of daily extreme temperature forecasts – stations average view

Hristov, Hristo and Bogatchev, Andrey (2018) An assessment of daily extreme temperature forecasts – stations average view. IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 122 (3). pp. 237-257. ISSN 0324-6329

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Abstract

The present article is the first one of a couple of articles, related to the assessment of the human forecasts (forecast made by weather forecasters). In this article, we have performed an integral assessment of the human-derived extreme temperature forecasts during 2009–2014. It will give us a more general picture of the forecasts, their accuracy over the years of the period in consideration, and their change through the different months of the year. We will show how the accuracy of the forecasts increases in the assessing period, and also how human forecasts underestimate extreme temperatures. The integral assessment gives us a more clear view on the movement of the various errors in time, but it has a significant shortcoming – the spatial distribution of the information is lost. The spatial distribution would give us a valuable feedback, that could be used to correct the forecasts. It will be discussed in the second article, where an assessment by stations will be made.

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