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Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) of SARS-CoV-2 increases fatality-rate for patients under age of 70 years and hospitalization risk overall

Cetin, Meryem and Balci, Pervin Ozlem and Sivgin, Hakan and Cetin, Sirin and Ulgen, Ayse and Demir, Hatice Dortok and Li, Wentian (2021) Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) of SARS-CoV-2 increases fatality-rate for patients under age of 70 years and hospitalization risk overall. ACTA MICROBIOLOGICA ET IMMUNOLOGICA HUNGARICA, 68 (3). pp. 153-161. ISSN 1217-8950

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Abstract

The emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants is a challenge to the control of this pandemic. It is therefore important to collect and to analyze data related to the infection caused by different variants. We have obtained more than 3,700 COVID-19 patients between April 2020 and March 2021 from Tokat, Turkey (roughly 3,100 outpatients and close to 600 inpatients) where about 30% were infected with Alpha variant (B.1.1.7). Descriptive statistics was used to characterize different subgroups. Both logistic regression and cause-specific Cox survival analysis of competing-risk was run on inpatients, to examine the impact of Alpha variant on hospitalization, on mortality and on other factors. We observed that the Alpha variant is over-represented in inpatients than outpatients so infection by Alpha variant increases the chance for hospitalization. The impact of Alpha variant on mortality seems to depend on the patient's age. For patients under age of 70, the case-fatality-rate was 0.84% (5.3%) for patients without (with) Alpha variant (Fisher's test P-value = 2.4 x 10(-10)). For patients above age of 70, the trend is opposite: the case-fatality-rate is 31.5% (13.6%) for patients without (with) Alpha variant (Fisher's test P-value = 0.0016). The two opposite trends would cancel each other, making other analyses such as cause-specific Cox regression and logistic regression non-significant. The Alpha variant increases the risk for hospitalization, increases the case-fatality-rate for lower age group, and decreases the case-fatality-rate for the upper age group. if the increase of case-fatality-rate in not the most senior group holds true, it should provide useful information for a vaccination planning to counter the impact of Alpha variants.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Funding Agency and Grant Number: Robert S Boas Center for Genomics and Human Genetics
Uncontrolled Keywords: immunology; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2 vírus; Alpha variant; age-dependency;
Subjects: Q Science / természettudomány > QR Microbiology / mikrobiológia
SWORD Depositor: MTMT SWORD
Depositing User: MTMT SWORD
Date Deposited: 18 Oct 2021 07:20
Last Modified: 18 Oct 2021 07:20
URI: http://real.mtak.hu/id/eprint/132615

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