Examination of Pharmaceutical Innovation Diffusion Using the Cox Model

Keresztúri, Judit Lilla and Lublóy, Ágnes and Benedek, Gábor (2015) Examination of Pharmaceutical Innovation Diffusion Using the Cox Model. Hungarian Statistical Review, 93 (SN19). pp. 47-66. ISSN 0039-0690

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Abstract

The article aims at identifying micro- and mesolevel characteristics of the early prescribers of newly marketed innovative drugs. The diffusion of the two most popular, new blood glucose lowering oral antidiabetic drugs (Eucreas and Janumet) is assessed. The process of diffusion is complex – although doctors consider each new drug on its individual merits, some seem more predisposed to adopt them than others do. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms leading to early adoption of new drugs is highly relevant for speeding up the spread of medical innovations, promoting cost-effective prescriptions, developing targeted detailing, and predicting the utilization of new medications. Cox’s proportional hazard model is used to examine factors influencing the likelihood of specialists’ initial adoption. Belonging to one of the classes of survival models in statistics, the Cox model relates the time passing until new drug up-take to four significant covariates for both Eucreas and Janumet. For these medications the portfolio width of a specialist and the proportion of patients treated with insulin are significant determinants of new drug prescribing. In contrast, working for an academic medical centre and being in a high position do not increase the likelihood of adoption. The authors’ results are in line with the findings of similar empirical studies.

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