When do expert decision makers trust their intuition?

Medvegy, Zoltán and Raab, Markus and Tóth, Kata and Csurilla, Gergely and Sterbenz, Tamás (2022) When do expert decision makers trust their intuition? APPLIED COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY. No. 3958. ISSN 0888-4080

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Abstract

The aim of this study was to explore when experts trust their intuition. The Take-The-First heuristic suggests that experts generate a few options based on option validity that match the current situation and probably pick the first one they generated. In chess, the rated quality of moves can be used to analyze fast and slow decisions. We provided players with strategic (long-term) and tactical (short-term) situations and asked for fast choices, further candidate moves, and the best choice. We divided the participants into three groups based on expertise. Results indicate that chess players at lower skill levels were more vulnerable in tactics than in strategy, especially under time pressure. Masters scored better than near-experts on intuitive and final decisions, and whereas near-experts profited from more time, the masters did not. This finding implies that Take-The-First is both boundedly and ecologically rational. Conclusions are made regarding trusting the intuitions of experts.

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