Seismic risk and disaster management perspectives in Hungary, presented on a case study performed in Győr

Kegyes-Brassai, Orsolya Katalin and Ray, Richard and Kuti, Rajmund (2017) Seismic risk and disaster management perspectives in Hungary, presented on a case study performed in Győr. ACADEMIC AND APPLIED RESEARCH IN MILITARY AND PUBLIC MANAGEMENT SCIENCE, 16 (2). pp. 5-16. ISSN 2498-5392

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Abstract

Recent earthquakes with high number of casualties and enormous devastation proved that the hazard of natural disasters should not be neglected. Preventive approaches have received greater attention recently. Although seismic events are rare in many places, they are characterized by high exposure and their economic and social effect may be really serious. The vulnerability increases with extending urban areas. Seismicity in the Pannonian Basin is moderate compared to seismicity of surrounding areas, nonetheless based on the recent high quality of earthquake observations and epicenter determinations it can be stated that at several individual locations earthquakes occur repeatedly. Some areas produced significant activity during a specific, but limited period of time. Moderate seismicity does not necessarily equate to a moderate size of earthquakes: reports of major earthquakes often refer to heavy building damage and liquefaction (e.g. 1763 Komárom eq.). To reduce the potential damage, a comprehensive assessment of the seismic risk followed by a package of relevant remedial measures is needed. This requires an analysis of potential losses in order to make recommendations for prevention, preparedness and response. This paper presents the case study for the city of Győr, focusing on the local soil effects performing response analysis with more than 6,000 realization; and visual screening of more than 5,000 buildings to determine the vulnerability and the overall seismic risk. Based on the results, engineers can better plan to make improvements to infrastructure, and authorities can better plan for emergency activities in case of a seismic event.

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