Newcomb Dilemma in Development Management

Ziegler, Zsolt (2020) Newcomb Dilemma in Development Management. INFORMÁCIÓS TÁRSADALOM: TÁRSADALOMTUDOMÁNYI FOLYÓIRAT, 20 (4). pp. 7-18. ISSN 1587-8694

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Abstract

Newcomb Dilemmas show a discrepancy between our rational reasoning—evidential and causal decision theory. In this paper, I provide three versions of the dilemma from the original highly technical and abstract one to two more mundane cases of it. I also account for the general schema of the dilemma possibly appearing in macroeconomic situations. Ahmed (2014) aims to provide a solution for macroeconomic cases that opens a room for forming a development management Newcomb Dilemma — an imaginary case of the electric motor competition between Toyota and Tesla. I argue that Ahmed’s solution may solve the macroeconomic Newcomb Dilemma, but it cannot be applied for the development management dilemma. If I am right, similar Newcomb situations can be regular in development management, bringing about insoluble strategic decisions. It may create an inevitable pitfall of development management.

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