Quo Vadis NATO?

Gyarmati, István (2022) Quo Vadis NATO? HADTUDOMÁNY: A MAGYAR HADTUDOMÁNYI TÁRSASÁG FOLYÓIRATA, 32 (3). pp. 19-32. ISSN 1215-4121 (nyomtatott), 1588-0605 (online)

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Abstract

NATO held its third summit this year. That in itself is remarkable, but the real sensation is that this summit produced, no exaggeration, historic results. It was about time. The Alliance has wasted a number of years, largely because of the complexity and rapidity of the situation, but also due to indecision, internal divisions and let us say it openly, cowardice. The international security situation, including the European security situation, has changed radically since the last strategic concept was adopted in 2010. Both in political-security terms and in military-technical terms. And NATO has been hesitant to respond. By way of indication, Russia’s departure from the path of cooperation in 2007 was obvious and open. Even before then, it was not sincere in its efforts to democratise and integrate into the European security system, but after 2007 it was clear that it had the opposite ambitions: see Putin’s Munich Speech, the attack on Georgia and the annexation of part of its territory, its heavy-handed intervention in the Syrian war, its support for North Korea and, of course, its de facto occupation of Crimea and two provinces of Eastern Ukraine. Nor has NATO adequately responded to the new challenge posed by China. We could go on incessantly about the inadequate response to Iran’s nuclear weaponization and others. But this is also true in the military-technological field, where cyber warfare, drones, hybrid warfare, artificial intelligence and others have emerged, again only indicatively. However, the unprecedented Russian aggression against Ukraine has had an impact. The Alliance got not only the opportunity, but the very urgent need to take stock of where it stands. The world has radically changed in the past decade and the change was multiplied by the Russian aggression against Ukraine and the war that is still going on with little hope of ending any time soon, as we speak. NATO has “woken up” from its “brain dead” state and has responded to these challenges with surprising strength. This reaction is clearly visible in the Communiqué adopted at the Summit and in the new Strategic Concept.

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