Analysis of the correlation between the incidence of food-borne diseases and climate change in Hungary

Kocsis, Tímea and Magyar-Horváth, Kinga and Bihari, Zita and Kovács-Székely, Ilona (2023) Analysis of the correlation between the incidence of food-borne diseases and climate change in Hungary. IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 127 (2). pp. 217-231. ISSN 0324-6329

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Abstract

It is increasingly accepted globally, that many food-borne diseases are associated with climate change. The goal of the present research is to investigate whether changes in the annual number of the registered food-borne diseases in Hungary can be correlated to any climate parameter, as it is reasonable to suppose that it can be linked to climate change. Ten climate parameters and indices were examined as potential influencing factors. A multiple linear regression model was employed, using the backward elimination method to find the climate factors that have a significant effect on the annual number of food-borne diseases. It was found that the annual mean temperature was the only significant predictor of the annual number of registered food-borne diseases, and that 22.0% of the total variance in the annual number of food-borne diseases can be explained by the annual mean temperature. It should be noted that this relationship is negative, given that they are derived from time series with opposite trends. This phenomenon may be explained by the process of evolution and adaptation of the infecting fauna.

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