The analysis of annual and seasonal surface air temperature trends of southern and southeastern Bosnia and Herzegovina from 1961 to 2017

Bačević, Nikola R. and Milentijević, Nikola and Valjarević, Aleksandar and Nikolić, Milena and Stevanović, Vladica and Kićović, Dušan and Radaković, Milica G. and Papić, Dragan and Marković, Slobodan B. (2022) The analysis of annual and seasonal surface air temperature trends of southern and southeastern Bosnia and Herzegovina from 1961 to 2017. IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 126 (3). pp. 355-374. ISSN 0324-6329

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Abstract

In some areas of the world, regional climate change is in good agreement with global climate change. This study brings new information about what defines climate change in the contact area of Adriatic Sea and Southeastern Europe, and conclusions are based on trend analysis of annual and seasonal temperatures in the southern and southeastern parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Trend analysis was applied on mean annual surface air temperatures, mean maximum temperatures, and mean minimum temperatures of all four seasons. This study used 4 meteorological stations: Livno, Bileća, Mostar, and Ivan Sedlo for 56 years. The main statistical method is the Mann-Kendall test. The total number of analysis is 48. A statistically significant positive trend was determined in 36 analysis, while in the rest of the tests this was not the case. The highest amount of temperature increase is present in the mean maximum summer air temperatures in Livno and Ivan Sedlo. Mean minimum autumn air temperatures had the smallest increase. Negative trend is present in the mean autumn surface air temperatures and mean maximum autumn temperatures. Using a geographical information system resulted in visualizing regional differences in the spatial distribution of isotherms. The study area has combined the influence of orography and maritime effects of the Adriatic Sea. Having in mind these results, the growing temperature has been recognized as a problem which needs more attention in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Unfortunately, official documents which propose economic adaptation on climate change in this country are not at a satisfactory level.

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