Comparison of Simulated Trends of Regional Climate Change in the Carpathian Basin for the 21st Century Using Three Different Emission Scenarios.

Pieczka, Ildikó and Pongrácz, Rita and Bartholy, Judit (2011) Comparison of Simulated Trends of Regional Climate Change in the Carpathian Basin for the 21st Century Using Three Different Emission Scenarios. ACTA SILVATICA ET LIGNARIA HUNGARICA, 7. pp. 9-22. ISSN 1786-691X

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Abstract

The present paper discusses the regional climate mo deling experiments for the 21st century for the Carpathian Basin using the model PR ECIS. The model PRECIS is a hydrostatic regional climate model with 25 km horizontal resolu tion developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre. Simulated future changes – in mean climatic values, distributions and empirical probabilities – are analyzed for the period 2071–21 00 (compared to 1961–1990, as a reference period). Significant warming is projected at 0.05 l evel for all of the A2, A1B, and B2 scenarios, the largest warming is estimated in summer. Not onl y the mean value is likely to change, but also the distribution of daily mean temperature. By the end of the century the annual precipitation in the Carpathian Basin is likely to decrease, and the annual distribution of monthly mean precipitation is expected to change. Significant dr ying is projected in the region in summer, while in winter the precipitation is estimated to increas e.

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