Statistical modeling of the present climate by the interpolation method MISH – theoretical considerations

Szentimrey, Tamás (2024) Statistical modeling of the present climate by the interpolation method MISH – theoretical considerations. IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 128 (2). pp. 143-154. ISSN 0324-6329

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Abstract

Our method MISH (Meteorological Interpolation based on Surface Homogenized Data Basis; Szentimrey and Bihari) was developed for spatial interpolation of meteorological elements. According to mathematical theorems, the optimal interpolation parameters are known functions of certain climate statistical parameters, which fact means we could interpolate optimally if we knew the climate. Furthermore, the data assimilation methods also need to know the climate if Bayesian estimation theory is to be correctly applied. Therefore, we have developed the MISH system also to model the climate statistical parameters, i.e. present climate, by using long data series. It is a nonsense that we try to model the future climate but we do not know the present climate.

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