Deglobalisation and Decoupling Tendencies in the Visegrád Countries in the Wake of the Polycrisis

Ginter, Tamás and Tischler, Patrik (2024) Deglobalisation and Decoupling Tendencies in the Visegrád Countries in the Wake of the Polycrisis. FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC REVIEW, 23 (2). pp. 56-82. ISSN 2415-9271 (print); 2415–928X (online)

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Abstract

After a number of shocks (including the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, in particular), global trade has undergone a transformation that is characterised by deglobalisation and decoupling tendencies. In this paper, we use descriptive statistics to analyse the short-term effects of exogenous shocks on international trade in the Visegrád countries. We find that between 2019 and 2022, deglobalisation tendencies were not persistent in the region. The trade-to-GDP ratio has exceeded the prepandemic levels (thus, the region is more globalised than in 2019), despite shortterm declines induced by the various shocks. While the region trades mainly with politically-economically aligned partners, the proportion of international trade with non-Western partners has also grown over the past four years. Trade with Russia has declined significantly since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, but decoupling from China has not started. However, certain country differences apply.

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