Dynamic interactions among exchange rate, natural gas demand, production in manufacturing and battery industry export – evidence from Hungary

Yang, Liqiao (2024) Dynamic interactions among exchange rate, natural gas demand, production in manufacturing and battery industry export – evidence from Hungary. GAZDASÁG ÉS TÁRSADALOM, 35 (1). pp. 29-47. ISSN 0865-7823

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Abstract

In the context of the current global economic transformation, the rapid rise of the electric vehicle industry has made the battery industry a new focus of competition among countries. Despite its relatively small economic and demographic size, Hungary has garnered significant academic interest by emerging as the world’s third-largest battery producer in 2021. The study employed a dynamic vector autoregressive (VAR) model to determine that fluctuations in the Hungarian exchange rate have a notable immediate influ-ence on exports in the battery business，which suggests that changes in exc-hange rates directly affect international competitiveness. The battery sector is experiencing a progressive increase in the influence of fluctuations in na-tural gas demand, particularly in terms of their impact on production costs and supply chains. The battery industry has had substantial advancements in technological innovation and production efficiency as a direct result of the expansion in manufacturing production. And Hungary’s total industrial development is significantly influenced by the long-term effects of export expansion in the battery industry. JEL Codes: L62, E44, O14, C22

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