Az online hírek terjedésének szerepe a Covid–19-járvány elleni védekezésben = The role of online informations’ diffusion in pandemic control

Igari, András (2024) Az online hírek terjedésének szerepe a Covid–19-járvány elleni védekezésben = The role of online informations’ diffusion in pandemic control. SCIENTIA ET SECURITAS, 5 (2). pp. 159-169. ISSN 2732-2688

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Abstract

Tanulmányomban arra kerestem a választ, hogy vajon miként segíthette a Covid–19-járvány első hulláma elleni védekezést az online hírek terjedése Európa országaiban. A járványterjedéshez és a Google-felületén való keresésekhez kapcsolódó adatok tér-időbeli elemzése során azt kaptam, hogy a Covid–19-ről szóló információk a járványnál gyorsabban terjedtek el az interneten. Ennek köszönhetően a két terjedési hullám közötti időeltolódás országonként eltérő volt: az információs hullámhoz képest a járványhullám viszonylag később érte el Kelet-Közép-Európát, mint a kontinens többi részét. Ez több időt adott a felkészülésre, a szükséges korlátozások meghozására, így elősegíthette a pandémia terjedésének lassítását és a halálozások számának mérséklését a térségben. | The aim of this study is to answer the question of how the spread of online news in European countries may have helped to control the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. I used regional statistical methods to analyse the speed and pattern of the diffusion of the COVID-19 pandemic and the online information related to that. The theoretical background of this paper is based on the diffusion model of Hägerstrand, which describes the spread of phenomena as spatio-temporal waves. Spatial research on diffusion processes has highlighted that the spatial pattern of diffusion is influenced by a number of factors; e.g. the transmission method of the given phenomenon and the structure of the networks used for transmission. Two main types of the spatial patterns distinguished: the so-called hierarchical and neighbourhood diffusion. In my paper, I analyse the speed and spatial patterns of the spread of two phenomena – the COVID-19 pandemic and the related online information – and the possible interactions between the two diffusion waves. To do this, I analyse weekly number of new reported Coronavirus cases (per inhabitants) and the (relative) number of Google searches on the topic “COVID-19”. Because of the methodological challenges of these indicators, they are primarily suited for analysing of the dynamics of the diffusion waves, so I use them for that purpose. The spatial frame of the research is the EU27 countries, the UK and the EFTA countries, while the time frame is 2020 January-June. I find that the first wave of the pandemic, after the initial sporadic cases, outbroke in all countries of the continent between the end of February and mid-March (i.e., in less than 1 month). Both hierarchical patterns of spread (associated with metropolitan centres and touristic regions) and neighbourhood patterns (based on geographical proximity) were observable. As for the spread of online news and information about the pandemic appeared on the continent in early 2020. The first main information wave related to the COVID-19 outbreak took place in late February and early March, but its upsurge was much faster than the diffusion of the pandemic: the number of online searches for COVID-19 jumped each European countries within two weeks. As a result, the time lag between the two waves varied from country to country: compared to the information wave, the COVID-19 wave reached East-Central Europe relatively later than the rest of the continent. This gave more time to prepare and to put in place the necessary restrictions, thus helping to slow the spread of the pandemic and reduce the number of deaths in this region.

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