Are the Member States of the European Union Converging or Diverging Demographically?

Drabancz, Áron István (2024) Are the Member States of the European Union Converging or Diverging Demographically? EURÓPAI TÜKÖR: AZ INTEGRÁCIÓS STRATÉGIAI MUNKACSOPORT KÉTHAVONTA MEGJELENŐ FOLYÓIRATA, 27 (1). pp. 33-47. ISSN 1416-6151

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Abstract

In our study, we have compared the demographic processes in the Member States that joined the European Union before and after 2004 with the variables total fertility rate, life expectancy, net migration and old-age dependency ratio. The demographic prospects for the new Member States are bleak, with high emigration and low total fertility rates, which may make ageing problems more pronounced among the Member States joining after 2004 than among those that joined earlier. Our cluster analysis has shown that the newly acceding countries, both in 2004 and today, show some degree of separation from the centre countries in terms of the demographic variables examined, but the stability of the clusters is relatively low depending on the methodologies used.

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