Smart epidemic control: A hybrid model blending ODEs and agent-based simulations for optimal, real-world intervention planning

Polcz, Péter and Reguly, István Zoltán and Tornai, Kálmán and Juhász, János and Pongor, Sándor and Csikász-Nagy, Attila and Szederkényi, Gábor (2025) Smart epidemic control: A hybrid model blending ODEs and agent-based simulations for optimal, real-world intervention planning. PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, 21 (5). ISSN 1553-734X

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Abstract

Optimal intervention planning is a critical part of epidemiological control, which is difficult to attain in real life situations. Ordinary differential equation (ODE) models can be used to optimize control but the results can not be easily translated to interventions in highly complex real life environments. Agent-based methods on the other hand allow detailed modeling of the environment but optimization is precluded by the large number of parameters. Our goal was to combine the advantages of both approaches, i.e., to allow control optimization in complex environments. The epidemic control objectives are expressed as a time-dependent reference for the number of infected people. To track this reference, a model predictive controller (MPC) is designed with a compartmental ODE prediction model to compute the optimal level of stringency of interventions, which are later translated to specific actions such as mobility restriction, quarantine policy, masking rules, school closure. The effects of interventions on the transmission rate of the pathogen, and hence their stringency, are computed using PanSim, an agent-based epidemic simulator that contains a detailed model of the environment. The realism and practical applicability of the method is demonstrated by the wide range of discrete level measures that can be taken into account. Moreover, the change between measures applied during consecutive planning intervals is also minimized. We found that such a combined intervention planning strategy is able to efficiently control a COVID-19-like epidemic process, in terms of incidence, virulence, and infectiousness with surprisingly sparse (e.g. 21 day) intervention regimes. At the same time, the approach proved to be robust even in scenarios with significant model uncertainties, such as unknown transmission rate, uncertain time and probability constants. The high performance of the computation allows a large number of test cases to be run. The proposed computational framework can be reused for epidemic management of unexpected pandemic events and can be customized to the needs of any country.

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