Precipitation during the vegetation period in Central Serbia over 70 years

Bačević, Nikola R. and Radaković, Milica G. and Nikolić, Milena and Valjarević, Aleksandar and Stevanović, Vladica and Kićović, Dušan and Božović, Ružica and Marković, Rastko S. and Marković, Slobodan B. and Lukić, Tin (2025) Precipitation during the vegetation period in Central Serbia over 70 years. IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 129 (2). pp. 107-132. ISSN 0324-6329

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Abstract

In this study, the trend for a category of variables, that is, for the total average annual amount of precipitation for the vegetation period (P-VP) from April to October is presented. Moreover, with the help of Geographic Information System (GIS) numerical analysis, geospatial distribution of the obtained results on the territory of the Central Serbia is described. The main objective of this study is the possible changes in trends for the total average annual amount of precipitation for the vegetation period in the observed area. In terms of methodology, trend testing was conducted using the Mann-Kendall trend test (M-K), trend equation, and trend magnitude. The data used for the necessary analysis were taken from the Meteorological Yearbooks of the Republic Hydrometeorological Institute of Serbia, with a total of 24 meteorological stations, for the observed time period from 1949 to 2018. A total of 24 time series were analyzed. The average annual amount of precipitation for the vegetation period of the observed area is 427.6 mm. The values range from 362.3 mm to 625.5 mm. The lowest value was recorded in Nis, while the highest value was recorded in Zlatibor. Based on the obtained results, a statistically significant positive trend was recorded in 2 time series, whereas in the remaining 22 time series there was no trend. Furthermore, the results obtained by the trend equation, and trend magnitude indicate a slight increase in the total average annual precipitation in 21 time series and a decrease was recorded in the remaining 3 time series. A decrease in the average annual amount of precipitation for the vegetation period was recorded in three cities, namely: Jagodina (-15.9 mm), Bujanovac (-4.6 mm), and Zajecar (-0.5 mm). Comprehending the interaction between precipitation and vegetation period is crucial for implementing adaptation and mitigation measures in terrestrial ecosystems. The preliminary findings of this study can offer a technical foundation and valuable reference for water resource and sustainable ecological management strategies in the Republic of Serbia, benefiting policymakers and stakeholders involved.

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