Comprehensive flood frequency analysis of major Sava River affluents in Bosnia and Herzegovina: risks, and implications for water resources management

Gnjato, Slobodan and Leščešen, Igor and Popov, Tatjana and Trbić, Goran (2025) Comprehensive flood frequency analysis of major Sava River affluents in Bosnia and Herzegovina: risks, and implications for water resources management. IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 129 (2). pp. 161-175. ISSN 0324-6329

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Abstract

This study addresses the pressing issue of flood frequency analysis in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH), focusing on major rivers—Una, Sana, Vrbas, and Bosna. In light of the global impact of floods on lives, property, and infrastructure, the research aims to understand and predict these events, particularly considering climate change and socioeconomic development. Employing goodness-of-fit tests such as Kolmogorov Smirnov and Cramér-Von Mises, the study identifies the most suitable probability distributions for modeling river discharge data. Pearson 3, generalized extreme value (GEV), and Gumbel distributions emerge as best fits, demonstrating variations across rivers. The research emphasizes the importance of tailoring models to specific hydrological characteristics, with the Bosna River best modeled by the Pearson 3 distribution and the Sana River by the GEV distribution. Calculated return periods for extreme flood events provide valuable insights into potential discharge magnitudes, highlighting the crucial role of accurate probability distributions in informed risk management and infrastructure planning. This study fills a critical gap in flood frequency analysis for selected rivers in BH, offering essential information for water resource management and flood risk assessment in the context of ongoing climate change.

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