Short- and long-run exchange rate volatility and FDI: A dynamic panel study of transition economies

Balaban, Suzana and Milić, Marko and Milošević, Marko (2025) Short- and long-run exchange rate volatility and FDI: A dynamic panel study of transition economies. ACTA OECONOMICA, 75 (1). pp. 1-18. ISSN 0001-6373

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Abstract

The paper decomposes the real and nominal exchange rate volatility using the component GARCH specification to examine their impact on foreign direct investment (FDI) in 23 transition economies at aggregated and disaggregated levels. The paper employs instrumental variables within the SYS-GMM estimation procedure to provide the results' reliability and consistency. According to the results, the impact of long-run real exchange rate volatility on FDI differs among economic activities. These findings may be explained by the fact that the key motives of foreign investors entering the manufacturing sector will likely differ from those of foreign investors entering the financial intermediation or transport and communication sector. On the other hand, the short-run real exchange rate volatility and the long- and short-run nominal exchange rate volatility are not significant determinants of FDI in the transition economies covering the period from 2000 to 2023.

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