Geoeconomic Fragmentation in the Western Balkans

Ginter, Tamás (2025) Geoeconomic Fragmentation in the Western Balkans. FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC REVIEW, 24 (2). pp. 27-46. ISSN 2415-9271

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Abstract

Geoeconomic fragmentation has become one of the timeliest topics in international economics. This paper focuses on geoeconomic fragmentation in the Western Balkans by applying a descriptive analysis of trade flows with each of the region’s major trading partners between 2010 and 2023. In addition to painting a detailed picture of the trading partner structures of the economies in the region, I examine whether geoeconomic fragmentation (growing trade within a geopolitical bloc) can be identified. I find that the Western Balkans trades predominantly with the EU and intraregionally. Trade patterns with Russia and China show mixed signs, and there are no clear signs of geoeconomic fragmentation. Thus, this paper supports the literature stating that so far in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe, geoeconomic fragmentation has rather been a possible policy narrative than an economic reality.

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