Huang, Hongwei and Zhang, Zhixin and Bede-Fazekas, Ákos and Mammola, Stefano and Gu, Jiqi and Zhou, Jinxin and Qu, Junmei and Lin, Qiang (2025) Cross‐validation matters in species distribution models: a case study with goatfish species. ECOGRAPHY, 2025 (1). ISSN 0906-7590
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2024.09.HH-ZZ-BFA-SM-JG-JZ-JQ-QLhalakkeresztvalidacioEcography12oldalen.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (2MB) | Preview |
Abstract
In an era of ongoing biodiversity, it is critical to map biodiversity patterns in space and time for better‐informing conservation and management. Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely applied in various types of such biodiversity assessments. Cross‐validation represents a prevalent approach to assess the discrimination capacity of a target SDM algorithm and determine its optimal parameters. Several alternative cross‐validation methods exist; however, the influence of choosing a specific cross‐validation method on SDM performance and predictions remains unresolved. Here, we tested the performance of random versus spatial cross‐validation methods for SDM using goatfishes (Actinopteri: Syngnathiformes: Mullidae) as a case study, which are recognized as indicator species for coastal waters. Our results showed that the random versus spatial cross‐validation methods resulted in different optimal model parameterizations in 57 out of 60 modeled species. Significant difference existed in predictive performance between the random and spatial cross‐validation methods, and the two cross‐validation methods yielded different projected present‐day spatial distribution and future projection patterns of goatfishes under climate change exposure. Despite the disparity in species distributions, both approaches consistently suggested the Indo‐Australian Archipelago as the hotspot of goatfish species richness and also as the most vulnerable area to climate change. Our findings highlight that the choice of cross‐validation method is an overlooked source of uncertainty in SDM studies. Meanwhile, the consistency in richness predictions highlights the usefulness of SDMs in marine conservation. These findings emphasize that we should pay special attention to the selection of cross‐validation methods in SDM studies.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Additional Information: | Marine Biodiversity and Ecological Evolution Research Center, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Guangzhou, China CAS Key Laboratory of Tropical Marine Bio-resources and Ecology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Applied Marine Biology, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China Global Ocean and Climate Research Center, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Guangzhou, China HUN-REN Centre for Ecological Research, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Vácrátót, Hungary Department of Environmental and Landscape Geography, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences, Budapest, Hungary Molecular Ecology Group (MEG), Water Research Institute (IRSA), National Research Council (CNR), Pallanza, Verbania, Italy Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Life Sciences of Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Chiba, Kashiwa, Japan Export Date: 23 September 2024 CODEN: ECOGE Correspondence Address: Zhang, Z.; Marine Biodiversity and Ecological Evolution Research Center, China; email: zhangzhixin1102@hotmail.com Correspondence Address: Lin, Q.; Marine Biodiversity and Ecological Evolution Research Center, China; email: linqiang@scsio.ac.cn |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | climate change, cross-validation, indicator species, species distribution model, species richness |
| Subjects: | Q Science / természettudomány > QH Natural history / természetrajz > QH540 Ecology / ökológia |
| SWORD Depositor: | MTMT SWORD |
| Depositing User: | MTMT SWORD |
| Date Deposited: | 04 Sep 2025 08:55 |
| Last Modified: | 04 Sep 2025 08:55 |
| URI: | https://real.mtak.hu/id/eprint/223435 |
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