Climate change and rice production: Empirical evidence from Vietnam

Le Thanh, Tung and Jan, Bentzen and Nguyen, Huynh Mai Tram and Pham, Nang Thang and Dinh, Van Hoang (2025) Climate change and rice production: Empirical evidence from Vietnam. STUDIES IN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, 127 (1). pp. 67-79. ISSN 1418-2106

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Abstract

Vietnam has been one of the three largest exporting countries in the global rice market in the recent decades. This study conducts an in-depth analysis of the impact of climate change on rice production in Vietnam from 2002 to 2022, focusing on key climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall, sunshine, and humidity. Located in the tropical and subtropical monsoon climate, Vietnam’s agricultural sector is acutely vulnerable to the growing challenges posed by climate variability. Employing robust empirical techniques, the research reveals significant correlations between climatic factors and rice yields. The findings demonstrate that rising maximum temperatures contribute positively to rice production while lowering minimum temperatures lead to reduced yields. Rainfall is shown to play a critical role in boosting productivity, whereas elevated humidity levels exert a detrimental effect. These results highlight the profound sensitivity of rice production to climatic changes, reinforcing the urgency for implementing adaptive measures and climate-resilient strategies to ensure the sustainability and stability of rice production in the face of a changing climate.

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