Characteristics of the September-December Teleconnection (SDT) in the current Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phase

Babolcsai, György and Hirsch, Tamás (2025) Characteristics of the September-December Teleconnection (SDT) in the current Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phase. IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 129 (3). pp. 265-278. ISSN 0324-6329

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Abstract

The atmospheric teleconnection presented in our former paper (Babolcsaiand Hirsch, 2019) shows a particularly strong regularity between the Euro-Atlantic meansea level pressure anomaly pattern in September and the pattern three months later, inDecember, in the current positive AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) phase lastingsince 1995.Euro-Atlantic mean sea level pressure anomaly patterns for September weredivided into four clusters, whereas cases that could not be classified as any of these, wereassigned to a fifth cluster.Based on the clustering, the December macrosynoptic situation in Europe can bepredicted in a significant number of cases, and hence the sign of the temperature anomalyin Central Europe.In our paper, these regularities are described, as well as their connection to thepolar vortex, which is the main factor in forming the mean sea level anomaly of thewinter months of the northern hemisphere. In the last 29 years, clustering based on themean sea level pressure anomaly for September has been able to divide significantly coldand mild December months even better than the state of the polar vortex in December(sign of the AO index).In addition, a new phenomenon is presented, which might be a sign of climatechange and has been interfering in the atmospheric processes since 2019.

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