Shrinking, growing or overburdened? : Territorial patterns in child demographics and institutional burden in Hungary’s public education system after 2021

Béres, András (2025) Shrinking, growing or overburdened? : Territorial patterns in child demographics and institutional burden in Hungary’s public education system after 2021. In: Interdisciplinary Dialogues for the Twentieth Anniversary of the SZJSZK. SZJSZK kötetek (4). PTE TTK Szentágothai János Protestáns Szakkollégium, Pécs, pp. 48-76. ISBN 9789636265120

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Abstract

This study explores the spatial patterns of change in Hungarian public education between 2021 and 2024 using settlement-level data on child numbers, the proportion of disadvantaged children (HH/HHH), and child–teacher ratios. Using k-means clustering, five settlement types were identified: Overburdened Growth Areas, Declining but Stabilizing Areas, Disadvantaged Declining Areas, Moderately Declining Balanced Areas, and Balanced Growth Areas. The findings revealed a deepening divide between dynamic urban/suburban zones and disadvantaged rural peripheries. Rapidly growing urban settlements face rising child–teacher ratios (e.g., up to 24:1 in some areas), indicating capacity constraints, while disadvantaged children have become increasingly concentrated in rural areas (up to 94% in certain settlements). Notably, by 2024, more than 1,200 of 3,155 settlements had no public educational institutions, raising concerns about territorial equity. The results underscore the need for spatially differentiated policy responses and present a typology that can guide the monitoring of fine-grained territorial dynamics in educational systems undergoing demographic and institutional changes.

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