Empirical cross-system meta-analysis of long-term transmission grid evolution

Hartmann, Bálint and Cirunay, Michelle (2025) Empirical cross-system meta-analysis of long-term transmission grid evolution. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL POWER AND ENERGY SYSTEMS, 173. ISSN 0142-0615

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Abstract

The potential of grid-side flexibility, the latent ability to reconfigure transmission network topology remains under-used partly because of the lack of empirical studies on how real-world grids evolve. We present the first cross-system meta-analysis of transmission-grid evolution by assembling and examining a harmonized annual topology panel for four European systems. Our multi-decade study covers the Czech Republic, Hungary, the Netherlands, and Slovakia over 50–70 years. For every year and country, we compute a consistent suite of complex network metrics together with multiple 3- and 4-node network motifs. We augment these with an asset-age layer that reveals how structural features created in distinct historical build-out phases persist (or fade) through time. We present evidence that networks were not only expanding but also increasing in complexity. The structural changes of the topology initially decreased the efficiency of the networks, which process later stabilized. The long-term ratio of various network motifs indicate an extended period of the evolution, where an equilibrium between robust and efficient topologies is seen. By coupling evidence from longitudinal data with topological characteristics, the study contributes to the understanding of topology control strategies in empirical evolution patterns.

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