Esszé a 21. századi hidrológiáról: eredmények, kihívások, lehetőségek = An essay on 21st century hydrology: Achievements, challenges, opportunities

Szöllősi-Nagy, András (2025) Esszé a 21. századi hidrológiáról: eredmények, kihívások, lehetőségek = An essay on 21st century hydrology: Achievements, challenges, opportunities. SCIENTIA ET SECURITAS, 6 (1-2). pp. 73-79. ISSN 3057-9759

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Abstract

A közlemény megkísérli áttekinteni a vízgazdálkodás jelenlegi főbb globális kihívásait, a hazai helyzetet, a főbb eredményeket, valamint az emergens kihívásokat és a lehetséges megoldások körvonalait. Azzal érvel, hogy a népességdinamikai előrejelzések és a várható klímaváltozás tükrében a jelenlegi vízgazdálkodási gyakorlat nem tartható fenn a 21. században, ezért a víz lesz századunk egyik legnagyobb, ha nem a legnagyobb kihívása – globálisan és várhatóan lokálisan is. Globális változás és adaptáció szükséges a vízgazdálkodás minden szintjén, az integrált vízgazdálkodástól kezdve az intézményes felépítésen át az oktatásig és a kutatásig. Ez a megállapítás egyaránt érvényes a fejlődő és az iparosodott országokra. Különösen érvényes Magyarország vonatkozásában, ahol az elmúlt évtizedek a dezintegrált vízgazdálkodás aggodalomra okot adó példájával szolgáltak. | The paper attempts to review current global challenges and opportunities in hydrology and water management, including local situations, the main achievements, as well as the emerging possible solutions. It argues that, in the light of population projections and projected climate change, current water management practices are not sustainable for the 21st century. Climate change, with its effects mainly on the hydrological cycle, poses additional new challenges for hydrological and meteorological services. If we really accept the integrating role of the hydrological cycle, and we have no other logical choice, then splitting it at any point is arbitrary as it violates the principle of integrity. The separation of the hydrological cycle into the atmospheric and terrestrial cycles is also arbitrary. It violates this principle even more if surface and groundwater quantity and quality data are treated separately at the institutional level, as they are now in many places. Data integration and open access are fundamental. Without the integration of water-related institutions, there is and will be no effective and sustainable water management. Therefore, water will be one of the greatest, if not the greatest, challenges of the century – globally and locally as well. Global as well as local adaptation are needed at all levels of water management, from integrated water management to institutional design, education and research. This applies to both developing and industrialized countries. This was particularly true for Hungary, where the past decades have provided worrying examples of disintegrated water management. One thing one should remember is that water management is not primarily a technical issue, but a social one. If it is social, it is political, and more than that, it is ethical. If water is a social issue, then it is inevitable that our decision models should include coupled modelling of the possible response mechanisms of society. This is probably at least an order of magnitude more complex than the 2/3D local hydraulic calculations, as there is at least one order of magnitude more uncertainty (and risk) in social responses. Whether this can be successfully solved by agent-based behavioral modelling and whether it can be incorporated into the modelling of fluxes in environmental processes is the big question. AI, or machine learning, is expected to answer this challenge. It is also expected that AI will essentially transform the whole and complex details of human condition, ranging from design standards and procedures to the use of earthmoving machinery and strategic planning at the watershed level. Hoping and making sure while the new disruptive technologies will indeed solve the problems we face and will not exacerbate them.

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