Analysis of the long rainfall data series of Mosonmagyaróvár with special regard to the water demand of the vegetation period of winter wheat

Varga, Zoltán and Kocsis, Tímea and Vámos, Ottilia and Vasas, Dávid and Magyar, Norbert (2025) Analysis of the long rainfall data series of Mosonmagyaróvár with special regard to the water demand of the vegetation period of winter wheat. IDŐJÁRÁS = QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 129 (4). pp. 373-391. ISSN 0324-6329 (print); 2677-187X (online)

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Abstract

The present study analyzes the long-term (1871–2020) precipitation time series of Mosonmagyaróvár (Hungary) and investigates the precipitation trends affecting winter wheat production. Understanding precipitation trends is important for agriculture due to the increasing frequency and intensity of droughts caused by climate change. In this study, parametric and non-parametric trend tests (linear and Mann-Kendall trend test) were applied, which showed a significant decrease in April and October. A significant downward shift of the mean can be demonstrated in spring by Pettitt’s test. This decrease has a negative impact on key growing periods for winter wheat, which poses a serious challenge to conventional wheat production in the region. The research highlights the importance of different agrotechnical solutions to reduce yield losses due to climate change. The results obtained are in line with trends observed in Keszthely (Hungary), which confirms the regional changes. These climatic changes can have a significant impact on the cultivation of our most important domestic food crop, winter wheat, so it is worth preparing for adaptation from this point of view as well.

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