Air temperature variability during the vegetation period in Central Serbia over the last 70 years

Bačević, Nikola R. and Radaković, Milica G. and Nikolić, Milena and Marković, Rastko S. and Tomić, Nemanja and Tomić, Tijana and Kićović, Dušan and Valjarević, Aleksandar and Marković, Slobodan B. and Lukić, Tin (2026) Air temperature variability during the vegetation period in Central Serbia over the last 70 years. IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 130 (1). pp. 1-28. ISSN 0324-6329

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Abstract

This study analyzes trends in three temperature variables (average annual air temperature, maximum air temperature, and minimum air temperature) for 72 time series from 24 meteorological stations in Central Serbia, spanning from 1949 to 2018. Data was sourced from meteorological yearbooks on the website of the Republic Hydrometeorological Institute of Serbia. Three statistical approaches were used: trend equation, trend magnitude, and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test. GIS was applied to visualize geospatial data distribution. The results indicate a temperature increase in 66 of the 72 time series, with the largest increase of 4.3 °C and the smallest of 0.2 °C. Temperature decreases were recorded in 6 time series, with the largest decrease of -0.5 °C. The MK trend test revealed a statistically significant positive trend in 53 time series. Geospatial analysis showed varying temperatures across the region, with average annual air temperatures ranging from 10.6 °C in Dimitrovgrad to 18.1 °C in Belgrade. These findings offer insights into climate change in Central Serbia, highlighting areas of temperature increase and decrease, and provide a foundation for future climate research and strategy development.

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