Recycling gains and material losses : a panel analysis of household waste trends in a decade of disruption

Ráti, József and Maró, Zalán Márk (2026) Recycling gains and material losses : a panel analysis of household waste trends in a decade of disruption. ENVIRONMENTAL DEVELOPMENT, 59. No. 101447. ISSN 2211-4645 (In Press)

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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly altered patterns of household waste generation, revealing complex interplays between consumption behavior, public policy, and environmental sustainability. This study conducts a unique and large-scale empirical analysis of municipal waste generation trends in Hungary, drawing on panel data from 640 municipalities between 2012 and 2023. Using advanced econometric methods, including panel regression models and excess-over-expected framework, this research investigates the differential impacts on selective (recyclable) and non-selective waste streams during a period of intensified social and regulatory transformation. Results indicate that while selective waste collection increased, total waste generation also rose, highlighting a rebound effect in consumer behavior. This suggests that the pandemic encouraged consumers to adopt more conscious waste generation practices, which persisted beyond the crisis. Furthermore, the impact of restrictions and lockdowns varied markedly by municipality type: urban areas saw the greatest increase in selective waste, potentially due to better infrastructure and higher e-commerce activity. However, contamination rates and inadequate recycling practices shadowed these environmental gains. Moreover, the study introduces the innovative use of the COVID-19 Stringency Index to quantify policy intensity and demonstrate its significant correlation with waste surges. These findings challenge assumptions that increased recycling equates to greater sustainability, and underscore the need for robust infrastructure, informed public engagement, and policy integration to avoid unintended consequences. This research not only fills a gap in literature by offering a multi-dimensional analysis of pandemic-era waste behavior but also provides evidence-based insights crucial for shaping circular economy strategies and resilient waste management systems in post-pandemic societies.

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