From Catch-Up to Command: China’s 15th Five-Year Plan and the Strategic Turn toward Technological Sovereignty

Salát, Gergely and Bortnik, Ruslan (2026) From Catch-Up to Command: China’s 15th Five-Year Plan and the Strategic Turn toward Technological Sovereignty. HIIA Analysis. pp. 3-21. ISSN 2416-0148

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Abstract

The 2026 “Two Sessions” of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference marked a defining institutional moment in China’s development trajectory. The approval of the 15th FiveYear Plan (2026–2030) formalized a fundamental reorientation of Beijing’s development logic: away from maximizing economic growth toward building a self-sufficient system anchored in technological sovereignty, social resilience, and civil-military integration. This article analyzes the key political and economic signals of the 2026 sessions, situates the new plan within the long-term evolution of China’s five-year planning cycles, and examines how its decisions connect to the strategic horizon of 2035. We argue that the institutionalization of “new quality productive forces”—spanning artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, semiconductors, and green energy—represents not merely a policy shift but a structural transformation of China’s modernization architecture. The state is transitioning from a facilitator of market-driven growth to a centralized coordinator of strategic technological ecosystems. Macroeconomic targets are recalibrated toward resilience rather than speed, while the integration of civilian and defense sectors deepens. Externally, China is consolidating a model of selective openness designed to create asymmetric interdependence with global partners. Taken together, the 15th Five-Year Plan signals China’s definitive move from catch-up development to managed technological leadership—with significant implications for the global economic and security order.

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