Preparation of a dynamic simulation model to support decision making in a sensitive rural area

Varga, Mónika and Balogh, Sándor and Csukás, Béla (2015) Preparation of a dynamic simulation model to support decision making in a sensitive rural area. AGRÁRINFORMATIKA / JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL INFORMATICS, 6 (1). pp. 11-23. ISSN 2061-862X

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Abstract

This paper focuses on the demonstration of a conceptual framework and a dynamic simulation based tool, through the example of southern catchment basin of Lake Balaton. The objective is to support the sustainable and reasonable environmental management by model based investigation of various scenarios. In the developed hydrological model, the coherence is given by the compartmentalized dynamic network of water flows and water bodies. The completeness is solved by the complete and disjoint covering of the whole area by modeled patches, corresponding to the CORINE land cover database of natural and human built environment. The complexity of the large scale and long term processes is managed by evaluating detailed models only for one representative patch from each class, while the calculation of the similar patches is solved by simple multiplication rules. According to the first experiences, the developed framework is able to integrate the field experts’ knowledge (data, relations, empirical knowledge, etc.) for the prediction of land use effects besides different climatic scenarios. It is noted, that continuous extension and refinement of the model and of the involved data is necessary, especially through more realistic case studies.

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