A Meta-Learning Model of Philippine Bank Lending Behaviour

de Leon, Christian S. (2026) A Meta-Learning Model of Philippine Bank Lending Behaviour. FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC REVIEW, 25 (2). pp. 119-158. ISSN 2415-9271 (print); 2415–928X (online)

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Abstract

This study develops a meta-learning framework to predict the lending behaviour of Philippine commercial banks using aggregate bank financial ratios and macroeconomic variables. Five baseline machine learning models – Boosting, k‑Nearest Neighbours, Neural Networks, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine – were employed, with their outputs synthesised through LASSO‑regularised regression. Results demonstrate that the metamodel consistently achieves superior accuracy, lower error levels, and closer proximity to perceived bank lending behaviour. Robustness checks confirmed stability across volatile and low‑variance regimes using Ridge and Elastic Net, while feature importance highlighted profitability and asset quality as key drivers of lending behaviour.

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