From Participation to Extraction: The Rise of Predictive Design

Csűrös, Dávid and Schneider, Ákos (2024) From Participation to Extraction: The Rise of Predictive Design. DISEGNO: A DESIGNKULTÚRA FOLYÓIRATA, 8 (2). pp. 10-35. ISSN 2064-7778

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Abstract

This paper introduces the concept of predictive design (PD) to critically examine how data-driven design methods are reshaping human-centred design (HCD). While HCD traditionally emphasises participation, empathy, and qualitative insight, the rise of predictive practices—such as anticipatory design and predictive UX—signals a shift toward a different mode of futuring in digital environments: one rooted in data science rather than open-ended dialogue with users. At the same time, the rhetoric of user-centredness is often used to justify large-scale data extraction, blurring the line between service and surveillance. This shift creates a tension with HCD’s commitment to designing by, for, and with people. Drawing on historical, epistemological, and cultural perspectives, we trace how predictive practices have gained momentum in design, particularly within the platforms of Google and Facebook. The paper outlines the epistemic logic of PD, distinguishes it from adjacent concepts, and explores its implications for user agency, participation, and the role of design in surveillance capitalism.

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