Peacebuilding through water cooperation? Institutional design and peace-relevant functions in the Indus and Nile Basins

Sullivan, Ferenc Miklós (2026) Peacebuilding through water cooperation? Institutional design and peace-relevant functions in the Indus and Nile Basins. HIDROLÓGIAI KÖZLÖNY, 106 (EN1). pp. 50-66. ISSN 0018-1323

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Abstract

Transboundary water cooperation is often promoted as a pathway to peace, but empirical evidence remains uneven and conceptually underspecified. This article advances a mechanism-oriented approach that links institutional design to peace-relevant functions and applies it to two high-salience basins characterized by power asymmetry, infrastructure expansion, and recurring political shocks: the Indus (Permanent Indus Commission, under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty) and the Nile (Nile Basin Initiative, launched in 1999, currently transitioning toward a permanent commission following the Cooperative Framework Agreement’s (CFA) entry into force in 2024). Using structured, focused comparison and process tracing across emblematic episodes (Indus hydropower disputes and third-party adjudication; Nile programmatic cooperation, early warning, and the political processes surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam [GERD] and the CFA), the analysis identifies a pattern of form-function complementarity. Legalized bilateralism in the Indus Basin is comparatively strong at producing “negative peace” functions: stabilizing expectations, reducing misperception through the routine of data exchange and channelling disputes into precisely defined technical-legal forums. Programmatic multilateralism in the Nile Basin is comparatively strong at cultivating foundations of “positive peace” by building shared knowledge, professional networks, and cooperative benefits that broaden society’s demand for stability. Neither form is sufficient on its own: legalized regimes can become brittle without adaptive and participatory capacities, while programmatic platforms struggle to contain high-stakes distributive conflicts without credible legalization and mechanisms of dispute settlement. The article concludes that the benefits of peace depend on the success of combining rule-based stability with bounded flexibility, along transparent knowledge systems and legitimacy-enhancing participation, while simultaneously maintaining harmony between the support provided by external stakeholders and the role of the riparian states without undermining ownership.

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