Hartmann, Bálint and Turóczi, Balázs Á. and Sőrés, Péter Márk and Vokony, István (2026) Institutional Drift in Power System Planning. In: CIRED 2026 Brussels Workshop, 2026, Brüsszel. (In Press)
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Abstract
Long-term network development plans play a key role in ensuring system adequacy. However, planned infrastructure investments are frequently subject to delays, rescheduling, or cancellation during their lifetime. This paper presents an empirical analysis of 15 consecutive annual Hungarian high-voltage network development plans published between 2010 and 2024, covering 748 transmission and sub-transmission projects. A harmonised project-level dataset was constructed to track the evolution of planned commercial operation dates, initial lead times, revision frequency, cancellation rates, and realised implementation timelines. Results show that project schedules are inherently volatile. Projects with longer initial lead times exhibit significantly higher cancellation risk, with more than 50% of projects planned four years ahead ultimately not being realised. Transmission-level investments display both higher planning look-ahead time and longer realised lead times compared to distribution-level developments. These findings highlight the importance of empirically tracking the temporal evolution of development plans to improve the realism of expansion modelling and support adaptive planning practices under changing technical and policy conditions.
| Item Type: | Conference or Workshop Item (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | T Technology / alkalmazott, műszaki tudományok > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering / elektrotechnika, elektronika, atomtechnika |
| Depositing User: | dr István Vokony |
| Date Deposited: | 17 Sep 2026 12:27 |
| Last Modified: | 17 Sep 2026 12:27 |
| URI: | https://real.mtak.hu/id/eprint/246588 |
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