Quantifying ethnic populations without a census: methodological lessons from Ukraine

Tátrai, Patrik and Molnár, József and Erőss, Ágnes and Kovály, Katalin (2026) Quantifying ethnic populations without a census: methodological lessons from Ukraine. REGIONAL STATISTICS, 16 (3). pp. 548-571. ISSN 2063-9538

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Abstract

This study introduces a methodology that may be used to perform a head count of an ethnic group and collect detailed ethnodemographic data. Due to the lack of ethnicity questions in censuses or in the absence of a census, this is a real gap in the knowledge internationally. This study focuses on Ukraine, presenting a new methodology for estimating the basic demographics of ethnic Hungarians. The research was based on a large-scale questionnaire survey conducted in 2017, covering all municipalities in Western Ukraine, which hosts a significant Hungarian minority. According to our model, in 2017, the number of Hungarians in Transcarpathia most likely ranged between 125,000 and 135,000. Two crucial methodological issues challenge the validity of data: the varying interpretations of temporary and permanent migration may lead to significant differences in the population size surveyed, while the situational self-identification of individuals, mostly of outlier categories such as the Hungarian-speaking Roma, may increase the uncertainty of results. Nevertheless, we argue that in the context where traditional censuses are being replaced by censuses that do not collect ethnic data, our model might fill the gap; however, its applicability to other minorities depends on the studied group’s particular structural characteristics.

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