Migration and Fertility Patterns in the European Union: Spatial Differences in the Role of Foreign-Born Mothers in 2024

Pári, András and Agócs, Gergely and Izing, Máté Antal and Uhljár, Péter (2027) Migration and Fertility Patterns in the European Union: Spatial Differences in the Role of Foreign-Born Mothers in 2024. MODERN GEOGRÁFIA, 22. (2). pp. 121-139. ISSN 2062-1655 (In Press)

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Abstract

This study examines the role of foreign-born mothers in fertility patterns across the European Union through a cross-sectional comparative analysis. Using harmonized 2024 Eurostat data, the research investigates the contribution of immigrant women to live births, their impact on total fertility rates (TFR), and the relationship between these dimensions. Ratio calculations and Pearson correlation analysis were applied within a unified EU-wide comparative framework, highlighting East–West and core–periphery differences in migration–fertility patterns. The findings show that the proportion of births to foreign-born mothers increased steadily across the EU between 2013 and 2024, reaching nearly 25% by 2024. Significant spatial disparities persist: in most East-Central European countries, the share remains below 5%, while several Western and Southern European states, as well as Luxembourg, Malta, and Cyprus, display exceptionally high values. In contrast, the impact on TFR is generally moderate and heterogeneous. Nevertheless, a strong positive correlation (r = 0.812) was identified between the proportion of births to foreign-born mothers and their fertility effect. The study concludes that immigration primarily reshapes the composition of live births rather than substantially increasing overall fertility levels in the European Union.

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